News|PoliticsWhy Riek Machar’s trial brings ‘existentially high’ stakes for South SudanSome see the first vice president’s trial as a provocation that has set the country on a path to war.

Juba, South Sudan – Riek Machar, South Sudan's first vice president and opposition leader, along with 20 co-defendants from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO), has been indicted on charges of terrorism, treason, and crimes against humanity. The charges are related to a March attack on a military garrison that resulted in over 250 fatalities.

Machar has denied the charges, stating that the accusations are unfounded. The SPLM-IO has echoed this sentiment, describing the charges as politically motivated.

This trial, open to the public since late September, has drawn significant attention. Observers have expressed concerns that the trial may be an attempt by the government to marginalize opposition figures, potentially exacerbating existing tensions in South Sudan.

Some members of the public have attended the trial to scrutinize the proceedings and assess the fairness of South Sudan's legal system. Opinions are divided, with some supporting the trial as a step towards accountability, while others view it as a political maneuver.

Justice Minister Joseph Geng Akech has warned against commenting on the ongoing trial, citing potential contempt of court. Machar, who is 73, is not eligible for the death penalty due to his age, but he faces life imprisonment and disqualification from holding political office.

The trial is a result of long-standing tensions between Machar and President Salva Kiir. The two figures were on opposing sides during the civil war between 2013 and 2018, which resulted in approximately 400,000 deaths. Although a peace agreement was reached in 2018, many of its provisions remain unimplemented, contributing to ongoing instability.

Ethnic dynamics also play a significant role in the trial. While Kiir and his allies are primarily from the Dinka ethnic group, Machar and the accused are Nuer. This ethnic backdrop has implications for the country's fragile state of peace.

The trial raises questions about the viability of the 2018 peace agreement. Critics argue that the agreement has failed to address grassroots issues and has centralized power among a select group of elites. The government maintains that the trial is within the jurisdiction of national law, while the defense argues that it violates the peace agreement's terms.

Observers note that the trial's outcome could influence future peace negotiations and the political landscape in South Sudan. There are concerns that it may deter opposition groups from engaging in dialogue, potentially exacerbating existing conflicts.

Machar's trial is seen by many as a strategic move by President Kiir to consolidate power and potentially pave the way for a successor. If convicted, Machar would be barred from political office, influencing the upcoming 2026 national elections.

There are fears that the trial may serve as a pretext for further ethnic divisions and political instability. Some analysts warn that the trial could lead to renewed conflict, undermining the fragile peace in the country.

As the trial progresses, its broader implications for South Sudan's political future remain uncertain. The outcome could significantly impact the country's stability, governance, and prospects for lasting peace.

Based on reporting by Al Jazeera.